AI performance stays constant once developed—wait, who said that? Altman? Zuckerberg? Musk?
In today's tech landscape, AI models begin losing intellectual value the moment they are deployed. Just like a perishable good.
The process mirrors "Theta (Time-Decay)" in options trading. Time itself grinds down performance.
"The shock of the launch genius becomes a mediocre response months later."
This isn't just user habituation. It's a technical "Theta-Decay" unique to AI, driven by corporate cost strategies, excessive safety tuning, and rapid innovation.
Why do AI models feel "expired" after 90 days? We analyze the curve of silent intelligence erosion.
1. What is AI Theta-Decay?
In finance, the erosion of an option's value as it approaches expiration is called "Theta 'Θ'." AI models share this trait: "Improvement is rare; the passage of time is a vector for degradation (Nerfs)."
📉 Three Phases of Decay
Phase 1: Day 0-30 (Innovation Phase)
Intelligence is pure. Peak reasoning, but peak deficit for the company. Freshness: 100%.
Phase 2: Day 31-60 (Feedback/Nerf Phase)
"Alignment Tax" from RLHF accumulates. Responses become cautious (dumber). Freshness:
70%.
Phase 3: Day 61-90 (Obsolescence/Theta Acceleration)
Competitors launch newer models. Stealth "distillation" for cost reduction causes intelligence
to deteriorate into junk. Freshness: 30%
The time value of an AI model erodes non-linearly from launch day.
2. The Fatal "90-Day (1-Quarter)" Cycle
Why 3 months? It's where the tech corporate revenue cycle meets the physical speed of AI development.
| Month | User Experience | Reality in the Server Room |
|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | "A God. The future is here." | Maxing H100/B200s to flaunt performance. |
| Month 2 | "A bit preachy now?" | Injecting excessive safety prompts (RLHF). |
| Month 3 | "Clearly junk. Late responses." | **Switching to cheap, distilled/quantized models for cost cutting.** |
Companies keep the "Latest Model" branding while hollowing out the core. The only solution? Use it while it's "fresh."
3. Managing "Freshness" Intelligence
We fight Theta-Decay with our exclusive **"Vitals (AI Freshness Ticker)."** By mapping Reddit/X sentiment against days since launch, we visualize any model's real-time "Health Status."
An era of managing not just data freshness, but the degradation of the model itself.
Take Gemini 3 Pro: Released ~80 days ago. Its Theta-Decay is maxing out, with developers reporting massive degradation in context recall. This isn't coincidence—it's the inevitable expiration.
Summary: AI is truly a perishable good.
How to Live with 'Perishable' AI
- ✅ Go all-in on launch day: Peak intelligence is Day 1. While you wait, Theta erodes value.
- ✅ Don't trust "yesterday": Assume decay. Don't be surprised if yesterday's prompt fails today.
- ✅ Check the Expiration Date: Monitor "Current Freshness" and avoid deep investment in expired models. Guideline: 90 days.
Which AI is most "alive" right now?
Live: AI Lobotomy Alert